Independent Experts More Effective Than Collective Expertise in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
.jpg "Independent Experts More Effective Than Collective Expertise in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty")
A collaborative study by Sergey Stepanov, Associate Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences and ICEF, and experts from INSEAD Business School and NYU Shanghai, indicates that in making decisions under high uncertainty, where it is unclear which choice is superior, advice from independent experts may be more beneficial than a collective opinion from a group of experts. The study has been published in Games and Economic Behavior.
In real-life situations, decision-makers often face the dilemma of whether to rely on the opinions of multiple independent experts or opt for collective consultation. Independent expert opinions are common in fields such as science and medicine—for instance, when reviewing papers for academic journals, multiple experts independently provide their feedback without knowing the identities of the other reviewers. Examples of collective expertise include meetings of directors, think tanks, commissions, and advisory boards, where solutions are discussed and assessed by experts working together as a team.
To determine when it may be more effective to rely on independent expert opinions versus a collective assessment, the researchers developed a model featuring several hypothetical experts who have received information about the situation but may interpret it in different ways. Each expert's goal is to convince the decision-maker of their competence by providing the most accurate forecast possible. The model envisioned two scenarios: independent expertise, where the experts were unaware of each other's involvement, and collective expertise, where they could discuss the information before presenting a unified opinion.
In the model, whether the experts express their true opinions is influenced by their reputation concerns. When a particular option is considered the most likely to be the right choice a priori, an independent expert may hesitate to contradict this prior opinion. But when acting as a group, individuals can first share opinions among themselves and thus reinforce their doubts if many experts have those, allowing the group to provide a more accurate response in such situations. Where an individual expert might refrain from speaking out, a group can persuade management to adopt a different perspective if it appears more suitable.
The study's findings indicate that the effectiveness of either approach depends on the level of certainty in the situation. In conditions of certainty, where the likelihood of success for each option is relatively well understood, a collective approach facilitates the gathering of more data and the development of a unified solution. By collaboratively discussing and analysing information, a team of experts can reach more accurate conclusions and reduce disagreements.
However, independent expertise is more effective in challenging and unpredictable situations. When it is unclear what is right a priori, an individual expert is not afraid of expressing their true opinion. This approach also helps prevent the influence of groupthink, where experts feel compelled to conform to the majority opinion. Hence, in contrast to the collective expertise, independent experts will be able to credibly communicate disagreements among them, which is valuable for choosing the optimal decision.
By 'high uncertainty,' the researchers refer to situations where there is no clear or widely accepted understanding of the potential outcome. These may include unconventional economic forecasts, unstable political situations, unfamiliar medical cases, and other scenarios that require flexibility and a non-standard approach to assessment.
'The study's findings can reshape our understanding of whether collective or independent advice is more effective. For a decision-maker, this choice does not depend on their personal preferences,' according to Sergey Stepanov, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences.
When it is unclear what choice is correct a priori, , independent experts can provide a more objective opinion. This can be observed, for instance, when surveying economists for forecasts on inflation or GDP growth, where the complexity of economic processes makes it impossible to determine a single 'correct' opinion in advance. The mass media, think tanks, and government agencies conduct such surveys among various experts to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the situation.
'In some cases, we can choose whether to consult an independent expert or seek advice from a group of experts,' Sergey Stepanov believes. 'For example, when making a complex medical diagnosis, one can either consult several medical experts independently or convene a medical case conference. Both of these approaches can be effective.'
Thus, according to the authors, the choice between independent and collective expertise depends on the specific situation, its complexity, and the available data.
See also:
Scientists Discover Why Parents May Favour One Child Over Another
An international team that included Prof. Marina Butovskaya from HSE University studied how willing parents are to care for a child depending on the child’s resemblance to them. The researchers found that similarity to the mother or father affects the level of care provided by parents and grandparents differently. Moreover, this relationship varies across Russia, Brazil, and the United States, reflecting deep cultural differences in family structures in these countries. The study's findings have been published in Social Evolution & History.
When a Virus Steps on a Mine: Ancient Mechanism of Infected Cell Self-Destruction Discovered
When a virus enters a cell, it disrupts the cell’s normal functions. It was previously believed that the cell's protective response to the virus triggered cellular self-destruction. However, a study involving bioinformatics researchers at HSE University has revealed a different mechanism: the cell does not react to the virus itself but to its own transcripts, which become abnormally long. The study has been published in Nature.
Researchers Identify Link between Bilingualism and Cognitive Efficiency
An international team of researchers, including scholars from HSE University, has discovered that knowledge of a foreign language can improve memory performance and increase automaticity when solving complex tasks. The higher a person’s language proficiency, the stronger the effect. The results have been published in the journal Brain and Cognition.
Artificial Intelligence Transforms Employment in Russian Companies
Russian enterprises rank among the world’s top ten leaders in AI adoption. In 2023, nearly one-third of domestic companies reported using artificial intelligence. According to a new study by Larisa Smirnykh, Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, the impact of digitalisation on employment is uneven: while the introduction of AI in small and large enterprises led to a reduction in the number of employees, in medium-sized companies, on the contrary, it contributed to job growth. The article has been published in Voprosy Ekonomiki.
Lost Signal: How Solar Activity Silenced Earth's Radiation
Researchers from HSE University and the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences analysed seven years of data from the ERG (Arase) satellite and, for the first time, provided a detailed description of a new type of radio emission from near-Earth space—the hectometric continuum, first discovered in 2017. The researchers found that this radiation appears a few hours after sunset and disappears one to three hours after sunrise. It was most frequently observed during the summer months and less often in spring and autumn. However, by mid-2022, when the Sun entered a phase of increased activity, the radiation had completely vanished—though the scientists believe the signal may reappear in the future. The study has been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.
Banking Crises Drive Biodiversity Loss
Economists from HSE University, MGIMO University, and Bocconi University have found that financial crises have a significant negative impact on biodiversity and the environment. This relationship appears to be bi-directional: as global biodiversity declines, the likelihood of new crises increases. The study examines the status of populations encompassing thousands of species worldwide over the past 50 years. The article has been published in Economics Letters, an international journal.
Scientists Discover That the Brain Responds to Others’ Actions as if They Were Its Own
When we watch someone move their finger, our brain doesn’t remain passive. Research conducted by scientists from HSE University and Lausanne University Hospital shows that observing movement activates the motor cortex as if we were performing the action ourselves—while simultaneously ‘silencing’ unnecessary muscles. The findings were published in Scientific Reports.
Russian Scientists Investigate Age-Related Differences in Brain Damage Volume Following Childhood Stroke
A team of Russian scientists and clinicians, including Sofya Kulikova from HSE University in Perm, compared the extent and characteristics of brain damage in children who experienced a stroke either within the first four weeks of life or before the age of two. The researchers found that the younger the child, the more extensive the brain damage—particularly in the frontal and parietal lobes, which are responsible for movement, language, and thinking. The study, published in Neuroscience and Behavioral Physiology, provides insights into how age can influence the nature and extent of brain lesions and lays the groundwork for developing personalised rehabilitation programmes for children who experience a stroke early in life.
Scientists Test Asymmetry Between Matter and Antimatter
An international team, including scientists from HSE University, has collected and analysed data from dozens of experiments on charm mixing—the process in which an unstable charm meson oscillates between its particle and antiparticle states. These oscillations were observed only four times per thousand decays, fully consistent with the predictions of the Standard Model. This indicates that no signs of new physics have yet been detected in these processes, and if unknown particles do exist, they are likely too heavy to be observed with current equipment. The paper has been published in Physical Review D.
HSE Scientists Reveal What Drives Public Trust in Science
Researchers at HSE ISSEK have analysed the level of trust in scientific knowledge in Russian society and the factors shaping attitudes and perceptions. It was found that trust in science depends more on everyday experience, social expectations, and the perceived promises of science than on objective knowledge. The article has been published in Universe of Russia.